Wanted to bring up an NFL system I have been tracking/using for the past few years. The system has to do with teams coming off of their bye week. One year I noticed teams coming off their bye were doing really well, so I started looking into it deeper. Makes sense, a team gets an extra week to prepare, rest, and get healthy.
I found an ATS trend regarding teams coming off of their bye, playing on the road that are favored. Since 1996, they have hit at 68.9% (42-19-1). Doesn't happen too often during a year, although last year there were 9 occasions (6-3). In the early years of bye weeks, it didn't do too well. From 1996-2001 it was 8-7, then 2002-2006 it was 12-7. From 2007 on, it's been a staggering 22-5-1 (81.5%). Not sure what to attribute the more recent success to, all I know is that it's been working.
In general, here is why I think it works. Obviously, a team has an advantage coming off of bye. They get a full week to rest, get healthy, and relax some. They also get more time to prepare for the next opponent, and even get to watch them play a game from the comfort of their own home (if they so choose). They do have to travel, but after a full week off, the ills of travelling probably aren't as rough a lot of times. Lastly, and perhaps the key, is that these teams are FAVORED on the ROAD. So that tells us that in general, Vegas concedes that these teams are of better quality to begin with, or perhaps are playing a team that is very poor. Just in general if you look at NFL teams favored on the road, they are usually going to be decent teams, and giving them an extra week to prepare only adds to their success rate.
So, as I will say with any system, it is just that, a system. I don't always just blindly go all in on these games, but use it as a tool and adjust as needed. As I have said before, I am not really a system guy, and don't pay too much attention to them. This one I feel is solid because it is based on some tangible information, that can affect a team or game (i.e. rest, talent, etc). It's not just an arbitrary thing like "Team A is 14-3 on Tuesdays".
Lastly, I always use the closing lines to determine if the game is a play or not.
If both teams are coming off a bye, it is a NO PLAY, as obiviously they would have the added advantage.
If anyone wants a more detailed list of the teams/results to back up the record, please respond with your email, or PM me on the Lock Thread.